Very bearish price action as the EURUSD closed Friday’s session sharply lower, forming a long bearish engulfing candle.
The most recent upside pullback was halted near the key shaded area on chart. A confluence of horizontal resistance, the 50-days simple moving average and the falling trend line for a potential descending channel .
The EURUSD trend remains bearish. Technically downside bias remains favored , where only a break back above that shaded area around 1.1700 would revive the chances for any significant bullish price action.
Next potential short term targets at the 1.27 extension of the most recent minor pullback around 1.1480, followed by 1.1420.
The price has hit the key long term resistance area among 114.50-115.00. Below this resistance the possibility of a downside pullback is present. As it also coincide with the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level for the overall major A-B wave.
To the downside, the key short term resistance could be at 113.20. Therefore, bias is neutral/sideways between 115.00-113.20.
A break below 113.20 may extend the downside and expose the recently broken key resistance around 112.20 . To the upside, a break above 115.00 may signal the continuation of the major bullish trend(started from 102.60 swing low in early January) towards 116.20 and 118.65 major swing high(point A).
The overall structure of lower highs remains intact as shown on chart(arrows). That keeps the longer term bearish trend in place. . As the price attempts towards the long term 200-days simple moving average last week were rejected, placing a new swing high.
On Friday the pair has broken back below the 50-days simple moving average and the short term horizontal support at 1.3710. This break below 1.3710 suggests the short term bias may have turned bearish again. We might see a bullish bounce to retest the broken 1.3710 before resuming the downside if the level holds. Next potential targets at 1.3625 and 1.3570.
First retest to the broken support area (shaded) was rejected. The price continues to hold below the falling trend line and the 200-days simple moving average. While we may see further sideways action, the upside should be limited to areas near the 200-days simple moving below 1.2500. To the downside, 1.2250 is the next potential target.
AUDUSD maintains the bullish trend that started late September. However, we have reached a key juncture and confluence of multiple technical levels. The 200-days SMA and a main horizontal resistance areas shaded on chart. In addition to the 50 percent retracement for the overall long term bearish trend A-B, and the 1.27 extension for the most recent bearish wave 1-2.
RSI Momentum indicator is also showing bearish divergences. Suggesting it’s a good idea for bulls to move to the sidelines, and maybe to consider short term confirmation signs to reverse bias to the downside. At least for a correction towards 0.7450.
NZDUSD maintains the one-month long bullish trend started from 0.6860 low. The wave has broken the 200-days SMA and extended the upside to test the ceiling of the rising channel before getting rejected. Also failing to sustain the break above 0.7175 major swing high(A).
While technically the uptrend remains intact, the price was rejected twice around the channel ceiling and 0.7220, forming a potential double top pattern. The pattern remains unconfirmed and the upside remains favored, unless a break back below 0.7130 swing low materializes could extend the decline a bit lower. However it will face the 200-days simple moving average and the support area shaded on chart.
To the upside, next levels the price may test is 0.7250.
Note that I’ll Keep an eye on 0.7220. In case a bearish signal present it self(ex. shooting star candle), I will be looking for a downside reversal.